2021.09.21 22:17 ItsSArCaZm 210129
2021.09.21 22:17 sluggyb0y do I not get to match with the new hot people?!
2021.09.21 22:17 Obewyn Enabling a Proactive Risk-Based Approach to Cybersecurity with Intelligent Automation [Video]
2021.09.21 22:17 Syth_ The Apple. 0.1 $ETH
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2021.09.21 22:17 aguia-7 🔥
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2021.09.21 22:17 -Noah SPIR went crazy today
2021.09.21 22:17 KingOfRedGra We love him
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2021.09.21 22:17 connivingleaf07 Certified Classic
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2021.09.21 22:17 dev_le Active Subreddit?
I just happened to come across this sub reddit today looking for a sfw place for my little. I'm part of a system so I love to engage in activities to keep them happy and when they do front, they love little games and activities.
It's a shame the last post on here is from a year ago...
TL;DR - Can we get this sub reddit active again?
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2021.09.21 22:17 Acid_Hits PSA: The term AFK is taken too literally (Explanation in comments)
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2021.09.21 22:17 LSD_is_awesome225 Just got a iPhone XR through t-mobile
anyways like the title say but I’m wondering bc on my t-mobile app I have a option for 4K video streaming quality I have it on but I read the xr does not have 4K ? So I’m wondering did it add native 4K ? Or what I’m not a tech kinda guy and really don’t know a lot about phones so if someone could help explain this to me I’d appreciate it .
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2021.09.21 22:17 hso0oow Reddit to the rescue
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2021.09.21 22:17 Obewyn Limiting the impacts of technology materials for the low carbon transition
2021.09.21 22:17 LovinLeague Father found this in Missouri. Was all one piece and he broke it apart to see inside. Any help to what this could be?
2021.09.21 22:17 Nekodanshaku Why Jews hated so much for twenty centuries in the EU?
2021.09.21 22:17 Emotional-Depth368 Lightspeed activated
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2021.09.21 22:17 captnamurica2 Michael Burry's 2nd Big Short: Tesla and the "Sledgehammer of Damocles" (Part 1)
If you talk about a sledgehammer and a souffle, best not to put them in your logos.
Tesla is the current king of the EV industry, having accounted for nearly 80% of EV sales in 2020. Between their S, 3, X, and Y models, they sold a total of 200,561 cars in 2020 according to Electrek. (Note that these numbers significantly differ from the investor decks, which show a total of 499,647 cars delivered in 2020, and 386,181 through H1 2021.)
They’re actively gearing up for continued growth, undertaking significant capital projects in Texas (Y, CT), and Germany (Y only), continue to expand the capacity of their existing production facilities in California and China, and are developing the Semi, Roadster, and the as-yet-unnamed future product. (Slide 7, Q2 2021 Investor Deck)
Beyond that, due to their acquisition of SolarCity, Tesla is also a dealer in the renewable energy business, via their rooftop solar photovoltaic products and home & grid-scale battery storage products, notably also introducing their Virtual Power Plant pilot program in California this past July.
Straight from the company itself - Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.
Disclosure up front - I am currently bearish on Tesla, with a growing put position fairly far out of the money. I'm not looking to dig my heels in on this position, though. Unlike many bear theses I have seen, though, I don't see Tesla crashing to double-digits anytime soon (barring some rather specific severe catalysts), and despite alluding to a possible frenzy-fueled crash to $100, I don't think Burry does either. There are a lot of legitimate risks to Tesla's value to analyze without resorting to bankruptcy theories or accusations of fraudulent accounting, and there are many legitimate reasons to support its stratospheric valuation, as well. I happen to think the risks outweigh the justifications, but that's just me. I'll be exploring those over this series of posts.
First things first - Bull Cases
I won't be analyzing these in this post, but I'd like to acknowledge them. ARK Invest has some well-known theories to support their 2025 price target of $3000 - Establishment of a proprietary ride-hailing service, success of autonomous full-self driving, increased market share in both EV and insurance, and continued realizations of manufacturing efficiency as described by Wright's Law.
Possibilities ARK left out of their Monte Carlo Model:
- Significant expansion of their grid storage, solar, and VPP businesses
- Cybertruck captures a significant market share of electric trucks
- Tesla Semi goes first to the market and captures majority share
- Excess production capacity/expertise is used in a significantly profitable way (Think AWS)- Simplified government subsidies tip the auto market in favor of EVs
If you haven't seen it yet, I recommend perusing ARK's Monte Carlo model. It's an impressive piece of work, though I was dissatisfied with how every case was simply a bull case, even their "bear case" and "minimum case." Considering Tesla's mission, I also found it odd that ARK ignored Tesla's stationary battery and solar sectors entirely, but...moving on.
Risks - or, the Bear Cases
There's a lot here, so I'm only going to highlight my top favorites:
- PR tipping point results in mass recall/sales freeze - Tesla crashes receive a disproportionately amplified level of negative attention and exaggerated coverage. Enough incidents like the one captured in Coral Gables, FL, though, (dashcam footage showed a fatal instant, explosive failure of the older battery pack upon an impact from beneath) would result in regulatory action and put a chill on the market for Tesla vehicles similar to that experienced by the Boeing 737 MAX.
- Black Swan - Unlike ARK's case of "Tesla goes bankrupt" my black swan case is a complete loss of confidence in the security of all Tesla products due to a successful cyberattack which causes real-world havoc. (In general, the average member of the public may tend to penalize the victim of the cyberattack, not the perpetrator.)
- The "Solar City" trial ruling ends with Elon Musk repaying Tesla the full cost of Solar City's bailout. Due to the leveraged nature of Musk's Tesla holdings, this would possibly lead to a significant chain of margin calls for him if he lacked the liquidity to pay this amount. (As Elon is the holder of around 20% of Tesla's stock, this would be a minor effect on the price.)- A rise in interest rates results in significant increase in the cost of Tesla's debt service.
- My personal focus - The "everything shortage" results in a pileup of undeliverable, unfinished inventory and/or a significant slowdown in production, drastically reducing their asset turnover. (Of note, Model S/X production went from 16,097 in Q4 2020 to 0 in Q1 2021, though this was completely offset by an increase in Model 3/Y production)
I'm not going to set a price target in this post. I'm not there yet. I'll just provide the following for now. As Tesla is behaving more as a growth company, I did an extended DuPont breakdown of their finances. Whole-year 2021 projections were created by making a simple assumption that the H1 2020 to H1 2021 change percentage would be identical for H2 2020 to H2 2021. A flat $5B was added to 2020 assets and equity.
|Item (in millions)||2019||2020||2021 (Projected)|
|Rtn on Equity||-13.3%||3.24%||22.07%|
2021.09.21 22:17 pennylanebarbershop How would the history of the earth have been different if there was no moon?
2021.09.21 22:17 No-Entertainment8113 !kokomi story spoilers!
love how all the ppl that said kokomi was gonna get a strategical mastermind backstory are now silent because its just another waifu-making dating sim where u read a book to her so she can sleep. i have literally lost all my respect for her, rip character development. well not that it surprised me after ayaka and baal, MHY really had good chars in then but violently forced them to being waifus. disappointment? 10/10. but hey at least u can get a better barbara as a mermaid-waifu if ur pulling for her, so have fun
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2021.09.21 22:17 Obewyn SOSi’s Cybersecurity Services to Support Verizon’s Army EITaaS Environment Pilot; Julian Setian Quoted
2021.09.21 22:17 L-O-R-A Permanent box dye, didn't go light enough, what happens if I use it again a second time?
So I used a box dye for a reddish color on my naturally brownish, in the past I had done it and it worked fine. I ended up with something that is about halfway between my old color and aimed color. Reason being the hair wasn't light enough, so it's still a little dark. Red, but dark. Kinda burgundy.
If I used the same dye a second round in the future, would my hair change further or has it hit a dead end of color? I'm asking because someone said the developechemicals in the dye would probably lift the color even more and the second time it may turn out lightebrighter.
But I don't wanna do that if it's just going to damage it.
Thankfully the result I have now is pretty, so I'm not too worried and in no rush. But I do think I'd eventually like to have the color I wanted originally.
Would I have to remove the dye, bleach my hair, then re-dye it to get it to be the desired lightness?
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2021.09.21 22:17 TN_Egyptologist Painting from the tomb chapel of Nebamen
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2021.09.21 22:17 s0ftcustomer No hate to Crash but tbh the Castle Crashers >
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2021.09.21 22:17 hoewenn Application fee is $340, is this normal?
I just turned 18 last month and I'm applying for my first apartment right now. I just filled out an application but the fee is $340, is this a normal amount? From what I've found on Google and from what my mom says, this is way too much. It's including a security deposit which is weird since it's only an application.
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2021.09.21 22:17 dratrb Preacher curl rack attachment
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